Forward electric markets were driven up over the report week, in part on the heels of higher natural gas prices. All ISO’s saw upward movement with near term energy prices most effected. In addition to the energy component, capacity prices in NYISO are up as well, further driving up the all-in price.
Day-ahead prices remained quiet as temperatures in the major demand areas were normal heading into the beginning of September.
Natural Gas Markets
Natural gas prices increased quite significantly especially as we approach this winter and through the beginning of next year. The 12-month NYMEX strip averaging October 2019 through September 2020 futures was up $0.10/Dth while the Algonquin basis jumped $0.13/Dth. Upward pressure may be beginning to surface as we near the winter season and traders begin to get nervous. LNG exports have increased, and rig counts decreased, further adding to the pressure. Although still higher than a year ago, production has now flattened a bit. This is not unexpected however, as with lower gas prices drillers have likely pulled back on exploration.
Six-Month Natural Gas Futures
Futures as of 9/4/2019 versus previous week:
Natural Gas Inventory
As of Friday, August 30, 2019, working gas in storage was 2,941 Bcf. This represents a net increase of 84 Bcf from the previous week according to EIA estimates. This injection was higher than expected. Storage levels continue to close in on the 5-year average, which is now only 2.7% lower.
The Baker Hughes exploration gas rig count decreased 2 rigs from last week, for a total of 160 rigs. This is 26 less rigs than were in operation at this time one year ago when there were 186 rigs.
The NOAA 6-10 day outlook anticipates much of the CONUS to be met with above-normal temperatures in mid-September. The Eastern half of the country especially, is very likely to see some warmer weather, while the Northwestern states are the only exception remaining normal to slightly cooler than normal.
National Weather Service Updates (NOAA)
Click here to view the National Hurricane Center site.
Equatorial Pacific Outlook:
Click here to view La Nina and El Nino status.
ALBANY – Federal regulators allowed the Constitution Pipeline to move forward Wednesday, ruling New York took too long to deny a key permit that had been blocking construction of the proposed natural-gas line
If you would like to receive the Energy Market Update to your inbox weekly, please click here to submit your name and email address.
Disclaimer: This information is provided for the use of our customers and potential customers. Power Management Company assumes no responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of pricing or information in this document. Historical data was obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. It is not intended to provide advice or recommendation. Views are subject to change without notice.