Energy Market Update

Electricity Markets

Electric prices in all ISO’s dropped pretty significantly over the report week. The run up was likely in part based on the anticipation of cold weather. Most recently predictions are calling for December to be milder than normal.

 

Driven by underlying natural gas prices, volatility to the day ahead electric markets appeared as temperatures fell 15+ degrees below normal bringing a quick spike to prices.

Natural Gas Markets

The shift to more seasonal temperatures has helped the NYMEX winter strip curve come off after its recent rally. The NYMEX 12-month strip decreased $0.08, and the price of the December ’19 contract alone decreased $0.23. Early 2020 prices pulled back quite a bit, while the remaining 12-month strip was down just slightly. The Algonquin basis was down $0.19.
 
The potential for long term upward pressure on forward natural gas prices given the news of less investment in natural gas going forward will be something we continue to monitor for. Based on the unknown of these fundamentals natural gas prices appear to be good value currently.
Six-Month Natural Gas Futures

Futures as of 11/13/2019 versus previous week:

Dec-19

$2.600

-$0.228

Jan-20

$2.692

-$0.215

Feb-20

$2.650

-$0.208

Mar-20

$2.536

-$0.160

Apr-20

$2.360

-$0.047

May-19

$2.345

-$0.026

Natural Gas Inventory

As of Friday, November 8, 2019 working gas in storage was 3,732 Bcf. According to EIA estimates this represents a net increase of 3 Bcf from the previous week. The long, strong run of above average storage injection has come to an end with this small weekly injection. Given the cold weather, this will very likely be the end of injection season.  In comparison there was a 42 Bcf injection last year and the 5-year average is 30 Bcf injection.

The Baker Hughes exploration gas rig count decreased 1 rig from last week, for a total of 129 rigs. This is 65 less rigs than were in operation at this time one year ago when there were 194 rigs.

Weather Update

The record-cold that blanketed the eastern half of the U.S. during the beginning of November is forecast to dissipate in the 6-10 day outlook. Some normal to slightly below normal temperatures are anticipated to wrap up the end of November.  

National Weather Service Updates (NOAA)

Hurricane Watch: No Current Hurricanes

Click here to view the National Hurricane Center site.

Equatorial Pacific Outlook:

Click here to view La Nina and El Nino status.

Energy News

Cuomo Threatens National Grid: Provide Gas or Lose Your License

The governor and the utility have been fighting for months over a proposed pipeline and a moratorium on new gas hookups.

Massachusetts Awards Its Second 800MW Offshore Wind Power Procurement

The Business Network for Offshore Wind congratulates Mayflower Wind on submitting the winning bid for the second Massachusetts offshore wind energy solicitation, joining Vineyard Wind 1 as an approved wind farm in the state.

 

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Disclaimer: This information is provided for the use of our customers and potential customers. Power Management Company assumes no responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of pricing or information in this document. Historical data was obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. It is not intended to provide advice or recommendation. Views are subject to change without notice.

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