NYISO and PJM saw almost no change week over week. ISO- NE also continues to be relatively steady, no big movements around the forward price of energy. However, forward quotes still may come in higher than expected in this region due to capacity, ancillaries, RECS and other factors. These are not going away regardless of low wholesale energy prices!
The day-ahead market has remained somewhat volatile, based on the below-normal weather in much of the Northeast especially.
Natural Gas Markets
The price of the 12-month strip averaging May 2018 through April 2019 futures contracts declined 5¢ to $2.829/MMBtu over the report week. The Algonquin basis in New England has continued to stay constant over the last month or so in a flat tight range. Total U.S. consumption of natural gas rose by 7% compared with the previous report week.
Six-Month Natural Gas Futures
Futures as of 4/11/18 versus previous week:
May $2.675 -0.043
Jun. $2.709 -0.057
Jul. $2.757 -0.066
Aug. $2.779 -0.063
Sep. $ 2.773 -0.058
Oct. $2.787 -0.057
Natural Gas Inventory
According to EIA estimates a net decrease of 19 Bcf was reported from the previous week. Working gas in storage was 1,335 Bcf as of Friday, April 6, 2018. Both the 5-year average and last year’s report were an injection of 9 Bcf. The 2017–18 heating season had periods of significantly colder-than-normal temperatures, resulting in substantial natural gas storage withdrawals. A record-breaking weekly withdrawal of 359 Bcf in January 2018 was also reported during this heating season. Currently stocks are 35% below last year and 22% below the 5-year average. Summer weather will play a large role in the storage injection season.
NG Rig Count
The Baker Hughes exploration gas rig decreased 2 rigs from the previous week for a total of 192 rigs. The report total is 30 rigs more than in operation last year when there were 162 rigs.
The NOAA 6-10 day outlook indicates another strong cold front for much of the CONUS and extending through the balance of April. Preliminary summer outlooks are expected to enter the market any day now.
National Weather Service Updates (NOAA)
Equatorial Pacific Outlook: Click here to view La Nina and El Nino status.
Energy News & Resources
State Seeking Proposals to Help Advance and Improve Resiliency of Electric Grid to Save on Energy and Costs
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